Ukraine Peace Talks - A Grown Up Is Taking Charge
April 27, 2023
The U.S. is unwilling to yet give up in its proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Russia can not stop the war without securing its legitimate interest to keep NATO and/or the U.S. out of its neighbor state. A loss of the war would create an existential danger for Russia.
With the two major powers engaged in a war a third party is needed to solve the conflict.
In the spring of last year Turkey and Israel successfully helped to find a peace agreement. A good solution was found and Russia as well as Ukraine agreed to it. But the U.S. needed the war to continue. It sent the British prime minister Boris Johnson to Kiev to sabotage the deal. The Ukrainian president was told that the country would lose all 'western' support should it sign an agreement with Russia.
As the somewhat neutral middle powers were unable to push any agreement through it became obvious that a third party with more heft was needed to seal a deal.
The time of moving towards a deal also needed to be right. On February 24, exactly a year after the war had started, China announced its Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis. This was not a peace plan but a lay out of things that will need to be understood and done to come to a sustainable solution of the crisis.
A month later China took the next step that will be needed in the process. It introduced a high ranking diplomat who will hold the preliminary talks in Ukraine and Russia to find the potential ways to proceed. The announcement was made after a phone call between the presidents Xi and Zelensky:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he held a “long and meaningful call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, a long-anticipated first contact between the leaders since Russia’s invasion 14 months ago.Xi appealed for negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv to begin, according to a Chinese government readout of the call, which Beijing said Zelenskyy requested.
Xi pledged to send a "special representative" to Ukraine for talks about a "political settlement" — warning that "there is no winner in a nuclear war."
China hopes to become a neutral peace broker in the conflict, although the U.S. and others have questioned its impartiality given a "no limits" partnership in which it has lent Moscow rhetorical and financial support.
I am not aware of any 'financial support' by China to Russia as NBC News is claiming here. Even U.S. intelligence says that Russia does not need more money to continue the war:
U.S. intelligence holds that Russia will be able to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another year, even under the heavy and increasing weight of unprecedented sanctions, according to leaked U.S. military documents.
China' readout on the call alludes to the previous proposal and offers to build on it:
With rational thinking and voices now on the rise, it is important to seize the opportunity and build up favorable conditions for the political settlement of the crisis. It is hoped that all parties would seriously reflect on the Ukraine crisis and jointly explore ways to bring lasting peace and security to Europe through dialogue. China will continue to facilitate talks for peace and make its efforts for early ceasefire and restoration of peace. China will send the Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs to Ukraine and other countries to have in-depth communication with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. China has sent multiple batches of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and will keep providing help to the best of its ability.
The Chinese special representative for Eurasian affairs is Liu Hui, a very senior diplomat.
He has held several positions in China's embassies in Moscow and Astana as well as within China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
In 2008-2009 Mr. Liu Hui served as a deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PRC.From August 2009 to August 2019 he served as an Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the People's Republic of China to the Russian Federation.
Ukraine's readout of the call does not mention the envoy. The U.S. response to the announcement of an envoy was designed to put China's efforts into doubt:
John Kirby, the National Security Council's coordinator for strategic communications, said the U.S. welcomed the call as a "good thing.""We’ve been saying for quite some time that we believe it’s important for President Xi and PRC officials to avail themselves of the Ukrainian perspective on this illegal and unprovoked invasion by Russia," Kirby told reporters, referring to China by the initials for its formal name, the People's Republic of China.
Earlier, Kirby, told NBC News, "We will let these two leaders speak to the details of their conversation."
A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was "way too soon after just getting word of this conversation to speculate about" whether the call should foster optimism about China's peace plan.
"Thus far, China has not shown itself to be unbiased when it comes to supporting Russia," the official said.
I have no doubt that Liu Hui will do his best to achieve some progress in talks with Ukraine and Russia. His most difficult task is to bring the U.S. on board of any potential solution.
But with more doubts coming up over Kiev's ability to successfully launch the announced counteroffensive being voiced every day the mood in Washington may well be changing.